NEW HAMPSHIRE MIRACLE? – AT 8:41 A.M. ET:  One of the toughest Senate races for Republicans this year has been New Hampshire.  Jeanne Shaheen, the Democratic incumbent, is relatively popular in the state, and has held a lead against Republican challenger and former Senator Scott Brown.

Brown, of course, was senator from neighboring Massachusetts, until defeated by Elizabeth Warren.  He is trying to make a comeback in New Hampshire, where he has owned a home.  No doubt the switch in states has cost him some support in New Hampshire, but he is now making progress.  A new poll, for the first time, has him ahead of Shaheen.  From Fox: 

Republican candidate Scott Brown has taken his first lead in a poll against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, although the results are statistically a dead heat.

Brown, a former Massachusetts senator, led Shaheen by 1 point in a New England College poll released Tuesday. However Dr. Wayne Lesperance, a professor at New England College, noted that the race was neck and neck.

“This week Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen 48 percent to 46.9 percent,” he said in a press release. “However, this is well within the 2.98 percent margin of error. So the Senate race is just too close to call.”

Shaheen is leading Brown by 3.5 points overall, according to a Real Clear Politics average. The Tuesday poll was the first time Brown has pulled ahead in a poll, according to Real Clear Politics. Shaheen has led in every other poll except for three, which were listed as ties.

Brown, 55, moved to New Hampshire to run for Senate after losing his 2012 re-election bid in Massachusetts. He was elected in 2010 to the seat once held by the late Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy.

COMMENT:  As the professor said, the race is neck-and-neck.  Shaheen is still favored, but the momentum may well have shifted to Brown.  We'll know more when further polls come out in the next week.  If the GOP can pick up this seat, we may well see a wave election on November 4th, meaning an election that can seriously change the political landscape. 

October 15, 2014